Are Solid State Batteries Finally Arriving
The promise of solid state batteries is very attractive. The headline characteristics of less weight, higher durability, quick charging, more energy density, longer range and acceptable costs have made them the holy grail of the electric vehicle sector.
The downside is that marketing puff began more than a decade ago. Solid state batteries always seem to be two years away. Toyota was planning to showcase the technology at the 2020 Olympics but that did not happen because of the pandemic. Several other car companies have touted the number of patents they own and how promising the sector is with nothing to show for their effort.
Jeremy Grantham’s seed investment in Quantum Scape received a great deal of attention in 2020 when it surged following an IPO. That quickly fizzled out when he displayed amazement with the valuation given the long timeline to commercialisation.
So what has changed? China’s intense competition among its various automotive brands may be coming to the rescue of solid state batteries. SAIC is building manufacturing capacity for its second generation solid state battery and so are several other brands. Here is a section from carnewschina.com:
It is worth mentioning that vast Chinese companies aim to introduce their SSB solution to the market in 2026. Chery aims to launch the solid-state battery in 2026 with a capacity of 600 Wh/kg. GAC Group said it will equip Hyper-branded cars with SSBs in 2026, featuring an energy density of 400 Wh/kg. Other companies that have ambitions in this segment are CATL, Great Power, Sunwoda, GWM, BYD, etc.
Most people are reluctant to buy electric vehicles because of range anxiety, safety and resale values. Solid state batteries seek to address many of those issues. 600 Wh/kg is more than double the energy capacity of Tesla’s 4680 batteries. That is a step change in what is available for the sector.
Tens of thousands of Volkswagen’s workers walked off their jobs today in protest at the layoffs. The slow pace of EV sales is to blame amid a transition Western automakers are bungling.
Within five years there is a good chance China’s automakers will dominate the low and mid-end segments of the market. That’s a significant challenge for the global sector and explains why tariffs are so popular right now.
Solid state batteries address the range anxiety and safety concerns of consumers, but the resale values of existing technology will be heavily impacted when these versions hit the market.