China’s Interest In Iran, Solar Out Nuclear In, Cocoa smuggling rises
China’s Interest In Iran
China buys over 90% of Iran’s oil. That means Iran is heavily dependent on China as a trade partner.
For China, Iran’s oil represents around 16% of its imports. That is a significant source of supply for the economy. Since Iran is so dependent on China that supply is a benchmark for China’s energy policy.
President Trump today said he wants Iran’s “unconditional surrender”. That does not leave much room for negotiation and suggests the ultimate aim remains regime change.
The son of the former Shah of Iran, Reza Pahlavi said today “The moment is approaching very fast, the regime is on the verge of collapse,” and “liberation from this regime,” also “the transition to what we hope will come in a democratic outcome.”
That is a significantly more ambitious objective than knocking out nuclear enrichment facilities.
So far, China has been very quiet as this conflict escalates. Above all, they will be interested in ensuring their dominance of the market for Iranian energy exports remains intact.
Since the USA has not entered the conflict in a direct manner, Iran has not yet escalated its leverage in the energy sector.
Disrupting tanker traffic through the Straits of Hormuz is something Iran has done in the past. It is reasonable to expect they will do something similar if the USA joins Israel’s bombing campaign.
Two oil tankers collided and caught fire in the region today. That was most likely the result of radar jamming by Iran in an attempt to counter Israeli air dominance.
This also emphasises the point that oil transportation will be a victim of the conflict regardless of whether measures to interfere with it are imposed deliberately.
Ensuring they can continue to supply China while disrupting traffic for everyone else is not easy. That alone ensures blocking the Strait will be an act of desperation.
It remains to be seen what China will do if the USA enters the conflict. Will they supply arms and munitions to Iran like they do for Russia? Will they be willing to sit idly by while a major energy supplier is moved out of their direct sway?
That seems unlikely.
