Syria Leaves A Vacuum In The Middle East
Syria’s regime collapsed over the weekend. The lightning advance of rebels from the north of the country down to Damascus in the southwest took less than a week. They met little resistance along the way. When they reached the capital government soldiers deserted their posts and peeled off their uniforms.
Russian air support was instrumental in ensuring the rebels were pinned down during the initial phases of the civil war a decade ago. The absence of those resources were the primary factor that allowed rebels to advance over the last week.
This email from a subscriber encapsulates the sentiment of the market
“Very big loss for Putin as his only naval base in the Mediterranean. I would say Russia must be a lot weaker than it appears as also it will lose its supply route to Africa. This could be a bit of luck for Trump in future talks about Ukraine.“
Dislodging Russia from its only Mediterranean military base will be a lot harder than taking over the country. They will certainly appeal to the 47-year lease signed in 2017 which gives them sovereign status on the Tartus base. That alone ensures Russia might have a difficult time enduring without local support but is unlikely to be dislodged.
The question for the wider world is what form the next Syrian government will take. Will the Kurds in the north use this as an opportunity to finally declare a homeland state for their people? Turkey would certainly not be happy with that outcome.
Will ISIS resurface? The USA was bombing ISIS targets yesterday in an attempt to avoid that particular outcome.
It seems Saudi Arabia and Israel are the big winners. Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman can claim he has successfully turned a Shia aligned state to a Sunni state on his own border. Iran’s supply chain to Hezbollah has been severed. That’s good news for Israel.
The successful rebellion clearly exposed the reality that Russia made a strategic decision to forego supporting Syria. Its air force was required elsewhere. That emphasises the point Russia’s push in Ukraine is absorbing a lot of its available resources in both men and material.
Meanwhile, China is now restricting access to drone components for Ukrainian, European and US countries and their respective militaries. That serves the dual purpose of assisting Russia and punishing the USA for tariffs and prohibitions on access to advanced chips.